When the Republic of Kosovo decided to review its State Strategy on Migration 2019-2023 and to develop a comprehensive Strategy on Migration 2021-2025 merging its Migration, Diaspora and Reintegration strategies, it created a twofold opportunity. On one hand, this approach would allow officials to improve their understanding of future trends and developments in Migration, and on the other hand it would provide them a chance to broaden the scope of existing strategies. The Government of Kosovo sought to identify gaps in the current system and strengthen its institutional mechanisms, all with an eye toward “improving and empowering migration management as an important pillar of the socio-economic development of the country”. This played out across five strategic objectives with the Global Compact on Migration, the potential accession of Kosovo to the European Union and the attendant legal and regulatory requirements influencing all of them.
Because the new Strategy on Migration looks well into the Future – a future that has grown increasingly unpredictable and uncertain, particularly after the onset of the current global pandemic –it inherently entails significant risks and challenges. The array of possible futures that lie before us includes elements that can waylay even the best-laid plans. With Strategic Foresight, various future scenarios can be designed. A strategy that is based on the strategic implications of these scenarios is therefore more future-proof than a strategy that is geared towards a one-dimensional future.
To build their strategic foresight capacities and future proof their migration strategy, together with Cambrian Futures we designed and conducted an applied Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning training for representatives of the Kosovo Government Agency for Migration (GAM) and the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO). This included:
- Primer introduction to the guiding principles and process of disruption foresight and scenario planning, from identifying a focal issue, to identifying and selecting disruptive forces, to creating future scenarios and deriving strategic implications from future scenarios.
- Application of the disruption foresight and scenario planning process to the migration strategy of the Government of the Republic of Kosovo